I can imagine how you feel. The thing is, the west has been built on somthing pretty foul and does not have any moral right to survive in it’s current form.

Greed killed America, there is little more to say.

You are quite right, America does not have monopoly on greed. America will always attract more attention because of the promise the country had. Many countries would love to have been as greedy, they just were not as good.

I do not think there will be any country to succeed America in terms of Americas dominance, influence, consumption or power. Please do not misunderstand my intentions, I am not bashing America, but the systems of western government and commerce. America is simply the obvious example.

I am afraid that other than war, America has finished it’s time.

I do not think that is a reflection of Americans, who as a people I admire greatly, but rather a reflection of governments and leaders who have led the American people down this path, and betrayed the people and the right to govern, both parties have done this.

I am sorry that we agree too. Would be alot better if we agreed and viewed things differently.

I will give a quick summary of why I think America is pretty much at the end. I can’t say I disagree about Europe either though, I think Europe is more complicated.

Up until the closing decades of the 19th century America was a fast growing frontier country. What I mean by that is there was still alot of infrastructure to put in place, still alot of labour required to bring the whole country up to a 1st world level. Of course parts of America already were, but the vastness of the country always meant it would be along time. In the last decades of that century America became the Great Britain of the world (or todays china if you like). America became the worlds workshop. Everything was made in America; and made well. Huge advances in productivity were made and America had the natural resources to fulfill the worlds needs as well as it’s own.

America continued this despite two world wars and a depression. The great oil fields helped to fuel all this growth. Unfortunately after the second world war and breton woods, America started a process of decline. Although not obvious, the scrapping of the gold standard in 1971 meant a gradual decline in dollar value, although there were of course fluctuations.

As normally happens, living standards rose and America developed.

Heres the kicker and why I don’t think America can get up from this.

America wanted bigger and better, both on a personal level and national level, you can really see this kick off in the 60′s and 70′s. This just went of the radar in the late 70′s and into the 80′s.

The 90′s saw massive social welfare costs and increasing military budgets despite the cold war ending.

Now America is so far in debt, with such high expectations regarding living standards, almost no natural resources, and in almost every field, uncompetative. Add to this the fact that America has very few natural resources left. Not enough to supply domestic requirements let alone for export.

America can compete in a very small number of mostly technological areas. How can an american with a $1k/month mortgage work in a factory against a chinaman who will work for $100/month. It is just not going to happen.

Will Americans take that kind of drop in their standard of living? I doubt it.

Now I know all American love the free market. Personally I think the free market is for idiots and the worst type of people in the world, the exploiters.

The chinese now have their turn at being the workshop of the world. But they aren’t dumb, they know it won’t last. Instead of buying lots of bmw’s etc, they have been buying copper, zinc, timber, uranium and every other commodity they can get their hands on. Not for the next one or two years, but for 50 years, 100 years, and even 150 years.

Even if America could compete in labour, how will it make anything if the chinese have all the commodities?

The last action of almost all failing empires is war. We should expect one.

I am sorry to say I think America will not rise from this in your lifetime, mine or our childrens.

Europe is probably the same, it has some advantages over America geographically and growth that is always caused by merging nations. But it is still like a band aid on severed limb.

I wish you luck, we are all going to need it.